Socialist Party Australia - Iraq: Victory will turn sour for US

sp writes "Saddam regime defeated - what does it all mean? (10th April 2003)

Saddam regime defeated - what does it all mean?
(10th April 2003)

Iraq war basically over: What does it all mean?

The Saddam regime has fallen and Bush, Blair and Howard will claim a great victory.

Last week we wrote in an article on Iraq: "Even if the US and British troops were suddenly greeted as liberators by some Iraqis, who long who that last? When the British army was first deployed in Northern Ireland, and when the Israelis first entered south Lebanon, they were both welcomed by many sections of the local population. But rapidly these forces came into bitter conflict with the very communities that had first greeted them.

"Already on 25 March, Ayatollah Baqir al-Hakim, a leader of the Supreme Assembly of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, one of the main Shia groups which have been working with the US and Britain, issued a warning that:
'Coalition forces are welcome in Iraq as long as they help the Iraqi people get rid of Saddam's dictatorship, but Iraqis will resist if they seek to occupy or colonise our country'. However, Baqir al-Hakim is deluded in welcoming US troops and hoping they will quickly leave. The very next day Colin Powell made clear the US's plans for Iraq when he told the US Congress: 'We didn't take on this huge burden S not to be able to have significant, dominating control over how it unfolds in the future.' This is a formula for colonial rule and most of those Iraqis who misguidedly welcome the US-led invaders will start to oppose them as the imperialist character of their occupation becomes clear."

The scenes of people on the streets of Baghdad reflect a great happiness by ordinary Iraqis that the brutal Saddam regime has fallen. We share their relief; in fact, unlike the US, we were opposed to the regime from the beginning. The US backed Saddam when he was killing Kurds and Communists in the 1970s and attacking Iran in the 1980s. The scenes on the streets of Baghdad also reflect relief that the bombing will stop and lives will therefore be saved. Some Iraqi people also hope that the US/British forces might bring with them prosperity and Western living standards. These same illusions were seen in East Germany in 1989.

The regime collapsed in 21 days due to the overwhelming military might of the US and the fact that they had no real support amongst the population - especially Shias and Kurds - after 30 years of Baathist repression. Almost every time a victorious army enters a city scenes as are unfolding in Baghdad now occur. We have to keep our heads and put them in perspective. In the 1970s British troops entering Northern Ireland were welcomed by Catholics who thought they'd protect them from the Protestant-dominated B-Specials thugs. Within a year the welcome had turned into a low level civil war that led to 3000 killed.

The US will now proceed to steal Iraqi oil wealth and implant a stooge President, Chalabi who is a convicted conman (jailed in abstensia in Jordan to 22 years imprisonment!). The scene of 2 US troops putting a Stars and Stripes on Saddam's statue (they were quickly told by superiors to replace it with an Iraqi flag) is an indication of what is to come.

The US intervention is shifting from the 1st military stage to the 2nd occupation stage. When Russia invaded Chechnya they said it was for 72 hours and they are still there 10 years later, with tens of thousands dead and a massive economic drain of the Russian economy.

Elements of the anti-war movement, especially those without a broader analysis of events, will be disorientated and even demoralised by the recent events. Marxists have a duty to explain and warn of future developments, even if that opinion is a minority opinion for now.

Below is the latest analysis from the CWI on the situation.

Even if the US and British troops were suddenly greeted as liberators by some Iraqis, who long who that last? When the British army was first deployed in Northern Ireland, and when the Israelis first entered south Lebanon, they were both welcomed by many sections of the local population. But rapidly these forces came into bitter conflict with the very communities that had first greeted them.

Already on 25 March, Ayatollah Baqir al-Hakim, a leader of the Supreme Assembly of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, one of the main Shia groups which have been working with the US and Britain, issued a warning that: "Coalition forces are welcome in Iraq as long as they help the Iraqi people get rid of Saddam's dictatorship, but Iraqis will resist if they seek to occupy or colonise our country". However, Baqir al-Hakim is deluded in welcoming US troops and hoping they will quickly leave. The very next day Colin Powell made clear the US's plans for Iraq when he told the US Congress: "We didn't take on this huge burden S not to be able to have significant, dominating control over how it unfolds in the future." This is a formula for colonial rule and most of those Iraqis who misguidedly welcome the US-led invaders will start to oppose them as the imperialist character of their occupation becomes clear.

"